In September, the first cryptocurrency unsuccessfully tried several times to overcome the important mark of $ 11,000. What prevents the asset from starting a new wave of growth, and what does the stock market, miners and the trade war between the United States and China have to do with it?
On Monday, September 21, the average bitcoin rate began to decline after it again failed to overcome the $ 11,000 mark. Over the past few hours, the cryptocurrency has fallen in price by 4%, to its current value of $ 10,569. Over the past three weeks, the coin has repeatedly rallied higher $ 11,000, but it failed to continue the upward movement.
"Bitcoin will follow the stock market"
Anatoly Knyazev, co-founder of EXANTE
The BTC crash in early September was associated with a deep correction in the US stock market. Now, cryptocurrencies, on average, move in the same direction as stock indices. Many investors have sold the cryptocurrency for fear of a repeat of the March sell-off scenario. A catastrophic collapse did not happen, but cryptocurrencies, as well as gold, are now frozen in anticipation, slowly returning to recent highs.
It is worth noting that crypto traders are waiting not only for changes in the stock market, but also for the expiration of bitcoin futures on September 25, which can significantly increase market volatility. However, BTC has a positive trend: over the past week it has risen in price by 6% from $ 10,200 to $ 10,900.
If the expiration of futures this week does not change the situation, then in the coming weeks the following options are possible:
Either the American stock market will remain at current levels, and BTC will be trading in the $ 10,000-11,000 region. It is also possible that without significant changes in the markets, investors will no longer be afraid of a general collapse, and bitcoin will go to $ 12,000 and above.
Either the US stock market will come in a strong upward or downward movement (both collapse and recovery to highs are possible). In this situation, Bitcoin is likely to follow the market.
"Bitcoin needs an additional signal"
Tatiana Maksimenko, official representative of the Garantex cryptocurrency exchange
Tatiana Maksimenko, official representative of the Garantex cryptocurrency exchange
So far, there are no prerequisites for overcoming and confidently fixing bitcoin above $ 11,000. The price of bitcoin is very dependent on market sentiment; it is sensitive to changes in the outlook of investors. Now bitcoin has won back almost all the positive signals that the cryptocurrency market has received this year. To push bitcoin up, some additional signal is needed that would induce investors to switch to cryptoassets.
For example, an even greater tightening of control over cross-border transactions in China, a powerful new round of the trade war between the United States and China, a strong second wave of the pandemic and the shutdown of many enterprises in the United States or China. For now, the market froze in anticipation: all these events may or may not happen in the coming year. Bitcoin also froze. The only factor that has not yet been fully played out in the price of bitcoin is the May halving, the effect of which will fully manifest itself by the fall of 2021.