To begin with, a few words about the events of the past week:
- EUR / USD. According to Reuters sources, the rate close to 1.2000 currently suits both sides - the US Federal Reserve and the ECB. Looking at the chart, one could clarify: not 1.2000, but 1.1850. After all, it is along this horizon that the pair has been moving for seven weeks. But, actually, the difference of 150 points does not matter here.
It would seem that the "dovish" rhetoric, which sounded at the end of the Fed meeting on Wednesday, September 16, should have reduced the attractiveness of the American currency. Moreover, the regulator announced its readiness to keep low interest rates until 2023. However, nothing of the kind happened. The reason is that from the ECB side no less “pigeon” statements are constantly being heard.
On the contrary, the dollar tried to go up against the background of the fall in the stock market, but this attempt also failed. Investors believe in the prospects of the euro and begin to actively open long positions as soon as the pair approaches the lower border of the 1.5-month channel 1.1700-1.2010. As a result, by the end of the week the pair returned to its equilibrium state and finished at 1.1845;
- GBP / USD. The pound has been growing throughout the past week. And this despite the problems with the UK labor market, the worsening situation with COVID-19 and the still unsettled situation with Brexit. The initial vote in Parliament on the scandalous bill, the adoption of which will sharply increase the likelihood of a "hard" Brexit, did not add clarity to the order of parting with the EU.
Taking into account the above, the Bank of England at its meeting on September 17 did not begin to adjust the monetary policy, but decided, having taken a wait and see attitude, to leave everything as it is for the time being.
Despite all this, by the middle of the week the pound managed to win back over 200 points from the dollar and reached the landmark level of 1.3000. This was followed by a rebound downward, and the pair completed the five-day period at 1.2921;
–USD / JPY. Like other regulators, the Bank of Japan decided to leave the interest rate unchanged. This decision did not come as a surprise to anyone. Markets associate much higher expectations with the departure of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. And although his successor, Yoshihide Suga, promised to continue his policy, certain changes will definitely not take long.
Most experts last week voted to strengthen the Japanese currency and lower the pair to the level of 105.10, and then 100 points lower. And this prediction turned out to be 100% correct - the pair found a local bottom at 104.25, and placed the final chord in the 104.55 zone;
- cryptocurrencies. Last week, we talked about a new indicator for assessing investor sentiment BTC, which was presented by the analytical resource CryptoQuant. According to this instrument, at the $ 10,000 level, bitcoin is "experiencing strong demand from buyers." The majority (60%) of experts agreed with the possibility of a rebound of the BTC / USD pair from this support and its moderate growth to the $ 10,700-11,200 zone, and they were right - having fixed the weekly minimum at $ 10,200, by the middle of the week the pair reached a strong medium-term level of $ 11,100 , around which revolves for eight weeks.
Bitcoin transactions grew by over 75% in August, according to The Block news agency. This fact may indicate a return to the industry of small miners who dropped out due to halving in May. Now they have the opportunity to start earning again thanks to the growth in the value of the main coin. And that's a good factor for the mainstream cryptocurrency. Moreover, not only the number of transactions increased significantly, but also their volume, which amounted to more than $ 191 billion. In July, the same figure was at the level of $ 85 billion.
On the other hand, according to Glassnode analysis, almost 10% of the reward to miners is spent on transactions to place BTC coins on centralized exchanges, which is why when trying to rise above $ 11,100, this cryptocurrency meets strong pressure from sellers.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has increased slightly and is almost in the middle of the scale - at around 49 (41 weeks ago). The total capitalization of the cryptocurrency market also grew in seven days, rising from $ 334 billion to $ 355 billion.
And one more interesting observation of The Block, now about Ethereum. If in August compared to July, the income of bitcoin miners increased by 23%, then the income of ethereum miners almost doubled - by 98%. According to a number of analysts, this may be due to the growing interest in this altcoin from large investors.
As for the forecast for the coming week, then, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of various methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following: