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Investment firm Wilshire Phoenix in a new report states that Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Bitcoin futures have a significant impact on the price of cryptocurrency, although it does not include direct transactions with it.
“The findings of Wilshire Phoenix indicate that CME bitcoin futures are more influential in price determination than the associated spot markets, ”the company writes.
CME Bitcoin Futures was launched in December 2017 and is settled in traditional currency based on the Spot Markets Index, but not directly interacting with them. At the same time, Wilshire Phoenix notes that the trading volumes of Bitcoin futures on the CME exceed the turnover of each individual exchange in the index.
Bitcoin market participants are well aware of the concept of the CME gap, which is formed in the event of a sharp change in the price of Bitcoin, while the CME is not trading. Usually, the price of bitcoin in the spot market tends to return to the price of the last transaction on the CME in a short time, thus closing the gap on the chart. The company notes that CME clients manage significantly larger amounts than regular users of spot exchanges:
“The relative number of small trades in any given market is usually not statistically significant for price determination. The average deal size in the CME futures market reinforces its leading position in price determination against the background of the stock exchanges that make up the index. "
Wilshire Phoenix observes a similar situation in other asset classes, where the futures market affects the spot price.
“There are 85 institutions holding open positions in bitcoin futures. Comparable values are seen for other CME futures in major currency markets such as the Swiss franc, US dollar index and federal funds, ”the company said.